基于动态可纳雨量的小型水库预警系统研究

Research on early warning systems for small reservoirs based on dynamic rainwater capacity

摘要:

针对当前小型水库在防洪方面存在的设计标准低、设施老化、监测预警系统薄弱、防洪调度不科学、信息不对称和综合防洪措施缺乏等问题，以岱山县为研究区，全面分析岱山县小型水库防洪体系现状及优化需求，构建小型水库动态纳雨能力分析模型，开发小型水库预警系统。结合气象预报降雨或监测降雨分析，对全域水库纳蓄能力进行动态计算，形成集气象预报、水库实时监测、水库泄流等预警相结合的多阶段预警体系，能够有效提高水库纳蓄预警水平，实现岱山县水库精准统筹管理与风险管控闭环，也为其他小型水库防洪工作提供参考和借鉴。

Abstract:

Small reservoirs often face challenges in flood management，such as low design standards，aging infrastructure，weak monitoring and early warning systems，unscientific flood control scheduling，information asymmetry，and insufficient comprehensive flood control measures. Focusing on Daishan County as a study area， this research analyzes the current state and optimization needs of its small reservoir fl ood control system. A dynamic rainwater storage capacity analysis model was developed alongside an early warning system for small reservoirs. By integrating meteorological forecasted rainfall and monitored rainfall，the system dynamically calculates the storage capacities of reservoirs across the region. A multi-stage early warning framework is established，combining meteorological forecasting，real-time reservoir monitoring，and reservoir discharge alerts. This approach eff ectively enhances the early warning capacity for reservoir storage，achieving precise management and risk control for Daishan County's reservoirs. It also off ers a valuable reference for fl ood management in other small reservoirs.