数字孪生飞云江流域防洪“四预”应用建设研究

Research on construction of “Four Preventions” digital twin application for Research on construction of “Four Preventions” digital twin application for f l ood control in Feiyun River Basin

摘要:

飞云江作为浙江独流入海的主要江河之一，易发生流域性大洪水，针对飞云江流域洪涝潮灾害防御工作中存在的信息共享不充分、洪水预报调度能力不足、工程联合调度能力不强等难点痛点，开展数字孪生飞云江流域防洪 “四预”应用建设研究。通过搭建多源数据融合、统一治理的数据底板，构建降雨—产流—汇流—演进—风险研判全流域洪水耦合模型，研发以历史暴雨洪水为核心的知识平台，打造飞云江流域防洪“四预”应用。在防御 2023 年“杜苏芮”等台风暴雨期间，滚动开展洪水预报，及时发布预警，实现多种调度方案预演，快速形成处置预案，打通防洪减灾工作各个环节，实现由经验防御向智慧防御转变，为沿海地区独流入海数字孪生流域防洪应用建设提供先行示范。

Abstract:

The Feiyun River，one of Zhejiang’s major rivers fl owing directly into the sea，is prone to large-scale basin f l oods. To address key challenges in fl ood and tidal disaster defense in the basin，including insuffi cient information sharing，inadequate fl ood forecasting and scheduling capabilities，and weak integrated engineering scheduling，this study explores the construction of a digital twin application for the “Four Preventions” in fl ood control. By developing a multi-source data fusion platform with unifi ed governance，the study establishes a comprehensive fl ood coupling model spanning “rainfall–runoff generation–fl ow concentration–evolution–risk assessment”. A knowledge platform centered on historical storm and fl ood events was created to support the implementation of the “Four Preventions” in the Feiyun River Basin. During the response to Typhoon Doksuri in 2023，rolling fl ood forecasts were conducted， warnings were issued promptly，multiple scheduling scenarios were simulated，and contingency plans were rapidly devised，streamlining all aspects of fl ood control and disaster reduction. This marked a shift from “experience-based defense” to “intelligent defense”， providing a pioneering demonstration for constructing digital twin fl ood control applications in coastal river basins fl owing directly into the sea.