我国海岛小流域防洪“四预”模型研究

Research on“Four Preventions”model for fl ood control in small watersheds of Research on“Four Preventions”model for fl ood control in small watersheds of China’s islands

摘要:

我国海岛众多，具有独特的气候和下垫面条件，在小流域防洪方面和内陆地区有较为明显的差异。为提升海岛小流域防洪能力，基于数字孪生技术，通过构建数据底板，整合数据资源，完成数字化场景搭建，构建水文水动力耦合模型，模拟洪水演进过程，开展防洪“四预”系统建设。以岱山岛典型小流域枫树流域为研究区域，模拟不同频率下暴雨洪水情景，初步实现小流域预报、预警、预演、预案等成果，成果表明：研究区域当下的防洪体系难以抵御 30 年一遇以上的洪水，应加强水旱灾害防御体系建设。研究成果能够较好地预测、模拟海岛小流域洪水过程， 为海岛防洪“四预”体系建设提供技术支撑。

Abstract:

China’s islands，characterized by unique climatic and surface conditions，diff er signifi cantly from inland areas in fl ood control within small watersheds. To enhance the fl ood control capabilities of small island watersheds， this study employs digital twin technology to construct a data platform，integrate data resources，develop digital scenarios，and build a hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model to simulate flood evolution processes. A “Four Preventions” system for flood control was developed and applied to a representative small watershed on Daishan Island，the Fengshu watershed. Simulations of storm-fl ood scenarios under various return periods enabled preliminary achievements in forecasting，early warning，rehearsal，and planning for small watershed fl ood control. The fi ndings reveal that the current flood control system in the study area struggles to withstand floods with a return period exceeding 30 years，highlighting the need for stronger flood and drought disaster defense systems. The results effectively predict and simulate flood processes in small island watersheds and provide technical support for constructing the “Four Preventions” fl ood control system on islands.