基于科学知识图谱的洪水预报研究演化分析

Evolution analysis of flfl ood forecasting research based on scientifific knowledge graphs

摘要:

为进一步分析我国洪水预报领域研究演化进程，辨识领域知识结构框架，以中国知网洪水预报核心期刊文献数据为研究对象，利用 Citespace 及 VOSviewer 软件绘制科学知识图谱，对文献发文量、研究机构、研究者、文献关键词进行统计分析。结果表明：洪水预报研究经过多年发展，研究机构形成多强共存、以强带弱的良好局面，不同研究团队间交流学习日益深入，文献关键词演进历程表明领域研究重点逐渐向资料缺乏的中小河流汇聚；并利用精细化模型实现洪水全过程模拟，能有效增加洪水预报精度，降低洪水灾害发生风险，为后续相关研究提供借鉴与参考。

Abstract:

To further analyze the evolution of fl ood forecasting research in China and identify the knowledge structure

framework in the fi eld，this paper focuses on core journal literature datas on fl ood forecasting from the China National

Knowledge Infrastructure. By applying Citespace and VOSviewer software to draw scientifi c knowledge graphs，the

study conducts a statistical analysis of literature publication volume，research institutions，researchers and literature

keywords. The fi ndings reveal that fl ood forecasting research has undergone signifi cant development over the years.

Research institutions have formed a favorable situation of coexistence among multiple strong entities，with stronger

institutions leading weaker ones. Communication and knowledge exchange among different research teams have

deepened over time. The evolution of literature keywords indicates a gradual convergence of research focus towards

small and medium-sized rivers with limited data availability. Refined models are employed to simulate the entire

flood process，effectively enhancing the accuracy of flood forecasting and mitigating the risk of flood disasters.

Furthermore，these insights provide valuable references for future research in related fi elds.