水库洪水预报-调度-演进一体化模型研究及应用

Research and application of fl ood forecasting-dispatching-evolution integrated model of reservoirs

摘要:

我国东南沿海地区受梅汛和台风暴雨影响，洪水灾害频发。水库作为重要的防洪工程措施，精准预报、有效调度对于防御洪水及降低洪水风险具有重要意义。针对东南沿海地区水库下游防洪风险问题，以温州市泽雅水库为研究对象，采用三水源新安江模型、马斯京根河道演算、水库调度模型、一/二维水动力串联耦合模型，构建水库预报-调度-演进一体化模型。建成的一体化模型集成接入泽雅智慧水库平台，推动水库防洪业务数字化转型。 历史洪水模拟结果表明：泽雅水库洪水预报、防洪调度及下游洪水演进模型能够满足水库保护下游城镇安全的要求，有助于提高水库洪水预报调度科学化、数字化、精细化水平。

Abstract:

The coastal areas of southeast China are aff ected by the plum season and typhoon rainstorm，and the fl ood disasters occur frequently. As an important flood control engineering measure，the accurate forecast and effective operation of reservoir are of great significance for flood control and flood risk reduction. Aiming at the flood control risk of the downstream reservoir in the southeast coastal area，this paper takes Zeya Reservoir of Wenzhou City as a case，an integrated fl ood forecasting-dispatching-evolution model is constructed by using the three-water source Xin'anjiang hydrological model，Muskingum river routing method，reservoir dispatching model and 1/2D hydrodynamic series coupling model. The integrated model built is integrated into Zeya smart reservoir system to promote the digital transformation of reservoir fl ood control business. The results of historical fl ood simulation show that the integrated model of flood forecasting，flood control dispatching and downstream flood evolution of Zeya Reservoir can meet the requirements of the reservoir to protect the safety of downstream towns，which can help to improve the scientifi c，digital and refi nement level of fl ood forecasting and dispatching of the reservoir.