水库预报调度模型应用研究

Research on application of reservoir forecast and operation model

摘要:

围绕全面提升水旱灾害防御能力的重点，探索新阶段水利高质量发展路径。珠海市水旱防御指挥决策支持系统平台依托珠海市“三防”系统二期工程，很好地契合智慧水利的相关要求。平台集成新安江模型构建的来水预报模型和基于水量平衡原理构建的水库调度模型，结合降雨预报数据，对水库来水情况作出预报，并基于输入的排水、供水量，即时反映水库的水位与库容变化情况。通过对平台的这两部分模型进行详细介绍与案例展示，证实具有较好的实用性，能够适用于珠海市流域水库。该平台可以在水库日常运行管理中，为水库管理人员预报调度提供帮助，也可为类似问题提供经验借鉴。

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the comprehensive improvement of flood and drought disaster prevention capabilities and explores the path to high-quality development of water conservancy in the new stage. Based on the second phase project of Zhuhai“three-protection”system，the fl ood and drought defense command decision support system in Zhuhai City perfectly meets the relevant requirements of smart water. The platform integrates an infl ow forecast model based on the Xin'anjiang model and the reservoir operation model based on water balance. It can forecast infl ow of reservoir according to the rainfall forecast data，and refl ect the changes of water level and storage immediately based on the infl ow and outfl ow. The two models applied in the system are introduced and demonstrated by cases，which proves to be practicable，and can be applied to the reservoirs in Zhuhai’s watersheds. The platform will be helpful to the reservoir staff in daily operation and management，as well as provide reference for similar problems.