MGM(1,n)模型在黔中枢纽大坝沉降分析的应用

Application of the MGM(1,n) model in Settlement Analysis of Qianzhong Hydraulic Project Dam

摘要:

岩溶地区影响高面板坝施工期和初运行期沉降变形的不利因素较多，其沉降变形是一个复杂的非线性系统过程。灰色理论能从有限的、离散的数据中寻求潜在的必然性，因而较适合于岩溶地区高面板坝的沉降变形分析。针对单点GM（1，1）模型不能考虑沉降监测点间的关联性，反映不出高面板坝整体变形规律的问题，本文在灰关联分析的基础上，选取黔中水利枢纽工程高面板坝施工期坝体最大沉降测点及与其关联性较大测点的观测数据建立MGM（1，3）模型。计算结果表明，与单点GM（1，1）模型相比，MGM（1，3）模型能反映出高面板坝沉降的整体变形规律，且模型的模拟和预测精度高。

Abstract:

High concrete rockfill dam settlement during the constructing and initial operating period is a complex nonlinear systematic process, especially for those in karst areas which have much more unfavorable factors. By extracting potential inevitability from the finite and discrete settlement data, grey system theory can establish model to seek settlement law of the high concrete face rockfill dam in karst areas. According to the single point model named GM(1,1) can’t consider the correlation of settlement between the discrete monitoring points, so that it can’t respect the integrated deformation regularity of the high concrete rockfill dam settlement, A multivariable grey model named MGM(1,n) is introduced to solve the problem in this paper. Based on grey correlation analysis, the MGM(1,3) model is established in this paper using the settlement data of the maximum and its relating monitoring points of the Qianzhong Hydraulic Project Dam during the constructing period. A case study shows the MGM(1,3) model can respect the integrated deformation regularity of the high concrete rockfill dam settlement and has a higher precision in simulating and forecasting than GM(1,1) model.